Basketball

Trade: Turkey BSL: Winner

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is determined as the champion of the Turkey BSL. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to be named as the champion of Turkey BSL per the rules of Turkey BSL (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$27
Total Volume
$2K
24h Volume
—
Open Interest
—
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Market outcomes

Bahçeşehir Koleji 48% YES52% NO
Beşiktaş Gain 48% YES52% NO
Bursaspor Basketbol 0% YES100% NO
Türk Telekom 48% YES52% NO
Galatasaray MCT Technic 48% YES52% NO
Glint Manisa Basket 0% YES100% NO
Petkim Spor 0% YES100% NO
Tofaş 0% YES100% NO

Market context

The Turkey Basketball Super League (BSL) championship will be decided through the 2025–26 season, with the title awarded to the playoff winner in spring 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 48% implied probability for the listed team, suggesting moderate confidence in their championship prospects relative to competitors. This probability incorporates expectations around squad composition, coaching stability, and competitive positioning within a league that has historically featured strong contenders from Istanbul and Ankara.

Turkish basketball has produced consistent championship outcomes, with Fenerbahçe and Anadolu Efes dominating recent seasons. Historical analysis shows that teams entering a season with strong rosters and stable management typically command 35–55% implied probabilities, depending on roster depth and injury risk. The current 48% reading positions the listed team as a genuine contender but not a clear favourite, suggesting traders view the competition as relatively balanced or perceive material uncertainty around the team's performance trajectory.

Key catalysts include pre-season roster announcements and injury updates through autumn 2025, which will clarify squad strength ahead of the January 2026 league phase. The regular season concludes in April 2026, followed by playoffs determining the champion by late May. Any significant mid-season trades, coaching changes, or injury developments to key players will likely shift the probability materially. Traders should monitor official BSL communications and Turkish sports media for squad news, as the settlement window closes 1 December 2026, providing a buffer after the expected championship declaration.

Wikipedia Context

  • Turkey (bird)
    Turkey (bird)

    Turkeys are large, heavyset galliforms in the genus Meleagris, indigenous to the Americas. They are among the largest birds in their native ranges, as well as being one of the heaviest birds in the order Galliformes. There are two extant turkey species: the wild turkey of Southern, Central and Eastern North America, and the ocellated turkey of the Yucatán Pe

  • Turkey vulture
    Turkey vulture

    The turkey vulture is the most widespread of the New World vultures. One of three species in the genus Cathartes of the family Cathartidae, the turkey vulture ranges from southern Canada to the southernmost tip of South America. It inhabits a variety of open and semi-open areas, including subtropical forests, shrublands, pastures, and deserts.

  • Turkey–Islamic State conflict
    Turkey–Islamic State conflict

    The Turkey–Islamic State conflict are a series of attacks and clashes between the state of Turkey and the Islamic State. Turkey joined the War against the Islamic State in 2016, after the Islamic State attacks in Turkey. The Turkish Armed Forces' Operation Euphrates Shield was aimed against both the Islamic State and the SDF. Part of Turkish-occupied norther

  • Turkey as food
    Turkey as food

    Turkey meat, commonly referred to simply as turkey, is the meat from turkeys, typically domesticated ones, but also wild turkeys. It is a popular poultry dish, especially in North America and the United Kingdom, where it is traditionally consumed as part of culturally significant events such as Thanksgiving and Christmas as well as in standard cuisine.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Turkey BSL: Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$2K in lifetime turnover and $27 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for basketball contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Turkey BSL: Winner"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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