Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on May 11 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $260 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $265 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $270 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $275 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $280 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Amazon's share price on 11 May 2026 will determine whether AMZN closes above a specified threshold. The settlement uses the official closing price from that trading session, or the last valid on-exchange trade if the regular session is disrupted or shortened due to market holidays. The 69% implied probability currently reflected in Polymarket's order book suggests the crowd expects a moderately high likelihood of the price target being breached.
Historical volatility in AMZN around specific price levels typically reflects broader market sentiment toward technology equities and Amazon's competitive positioning. Single-day price movements of 2–4% are not uncommon for mega-cap tech stocks, particularly around earnings seasons or macroeconomic shifts. The current probability weighting indicates traders are pricing in a scenario where upside momentum or stability prevails over downside pressure, though the 31% tail probability for closure below the threshold reflects material uncertainty about intervening market conditions.
Key catalysts between now and settlement include quarterly earnings announcements, cloud infrastructure developments, and shifts in US interest rate expectations. Amazon's AWS division performance and competitive dynamics with Microsoft Azure remain focal points for institutional positioning. Broader equity market conditions, particularly sentiment around technology valuations and consumer spending, will influence intraday trading ranges. Any significant macroeconomic data releases or Federal Reserve communications in the weeks preceding 11 May could shift the order book dynamics materially.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Amazon (AMZN) closes above ___ on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $1.3M of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for amzn contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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