Resolution criteria on PolyGram: McCormick & Company and Unilever announced the proposed combination of Unilever's Foods business with McCormick on March 31, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://www.unilever.com/news/press-and-media/press-releases/2026/unilever-announces-the-combination-of-unilever-foods-with-mccormick/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the merger between McCormick & Company and Unilever Foods is completed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| June 30, 2027 | 55% YES | 45% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| December 31, 2027 | 87% YES | 14% NO |
McCormick & Company and Unilever announced on 31 March 2026 a proposed combination whereby McCormick would acquire Unilever's Foods division, creating a combined entity with substantial global reach in seasonings, condiments and culinary products. The transaction requires regulatory approval across multiple jurisdictions, including the United States, European Union and United Kingdom, alongside customary closing conditions. Settlement of this market depends on legal completion by 31 December 2027, giving roughly 21 months from announcement for all approvals and closing mechanics to conclude.
Large-scale food sector consolidations have faced material delays and regulatory scrutiny in recent years. The 2019 Nestlé-Starbucks coffee deal took approximately two years from announcement to close, whilst the proposed Unilever-GSK consumer health separation faced extended timelines. The current 55% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects meaningful execution risk, particularly given the EU's heightened scrutiny of large food combinations and the complexity of separating Unilever Foods' integrated operations. Historical precedent suggests regulatory review cycles alone typically consume 12–18 months for transactions of this scale.
Traders should monitor regulatory filing announcements, particularly from the European Commission and UK Competition and Markets Authority, expected within the coming months. Material catalysts include Hart-Scott-Rodino clearance timing in the United States, any remedies or conditions imposed by competition authorities, and quarterly earnings updates from both companies that may signal confidence in closing timelines. Delays in obtaining clearances or unexpected regulatory conditions could materially shift completion probability before the 2027 year-end deadline.
Marie Clare McCormick is an American pediatrician and Sumner and Esther Feldberg Professor of Maternal and Child Health in the Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston, Massachusetts. She also holds an appointment as professor of pediatrics in the Harvard Medical School. In addition, she is the senio
Megan Leah McCormick is an American TV presenter, who is one of the main hosts of the Pilot Productions travel-adventure series Globe Trekker. She also hosted the television series Sea Nation, which aired in 2010.
William Merrill McCormick was an American film actor. He appeared in more than 250 films between 1916 and 1953.
George Mark McCormick is an English professional footballer who plays as a left-back for the EFL Championship club Middlesbrough.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$491 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for acquisitions contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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