Trade: NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy for the 2025-26 NHL Playoffs. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NHL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2025-26 NHL Playoffs are cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $27K
- Total Volume
- $3K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $3K
Market outcomes
| Linus Ullmark | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Seth Jarvis | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Quinn Hughes | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Jake Oettinger | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Dan Vladar | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Sidney Crosby | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Cale Makar | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| Anze Kopitar | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
The 2025-26 NHL season will culminate in playoffs beginning in April 2026, with the Stanley Cup Finals scheduled for June. The Conn Smythe Trophy is awarded annually to the most valuable player of the winning team, determined by voters immediately following the championship series. This market settles on the identity of that individual player, with resolution tied to official NHL designation by 30 June 2026.
The 0% implied probability reflects the current state of Polymarket's order book, where no traders have yet positioned substantially on specific players. Historically, Conn Smythe markets show minimal trading activity until the playoffs begin, as the trophy winner emerges from a field of roughly 750 eligible players across 32 teams. Comparable markets from prior seasons demonstrate that meaningful probability accumulation typically occurs once playoff matchups crystallise and team performance becomes observable. Early positioning is sparse because individual player performance remains entirely contingent on team advancement and playoff circumstances unknown until spring 2026.
Key catalysts for traders include the regular season's final standings (April 2026), which determine playoff seeding and matchups, and early playoff results that signal which teams possess genuine championship contention. Injury developments to star players during the regular season will influence perceived probabilities for specific candidates. The market's liquidity and price discovery will accelerate substantially once the Finals begin in June, when voter preferences typically coalesce around the winning team's standout performer.
Wikipedia Context
-
NHL 2001NHL 2001 is a video game released by Electronic Arts in 2000. It is the successor to NHL 2000. An add-on featuring Elitserien and SM-Liiga was released on the PC version on March 8, 2001, that added Swedish and Finnish hockey leagues and teams to the game. It is the tenth installment of the NHL series, the final to be released on PlayStation, and the first t
-
NHL 2002NHL 2002 is a video game released by EA Sports in 2001. It is the predecessor to NHL 2003. The game's cover man is Pittsburgh Penguins superstar and owner Mario Lemieux, who had just made a comeback after being retired for three and a half years. It was the first installment of the NHL series to be released on Xbox.
-
NHL 09NHL 09 is the 17th video game in the NHL series released by EA Sports in 2008. This was the final NHL game to be released on the PlayStation 2 and Microsoft Windows.
-
NHL 08NHL 08 is a video game released on September 11, 2007 in North America This was the first installment released on the PlayStation 3.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$3K in lifetime turnover and $27K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for 2026 nhl playoffs contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: