Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <1.00 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.00-1.10 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.10-1.20 | 2% YES | 99% NO |
| 1.20-1.30 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 1.30-1.40 | 41% YES | 59% NO |
| 1.40-1.50 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| 1.50-1.60 | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| 1.60-1.70 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
This market settles on the XRP/USDT closing price at noon ET on 13 May 2026, using Binance's 1-minute candle data. The 0% implied probability reflected in the current order book suggests traders are pricing in either extreme uncertainty about XRP's tradability on that date or a structural assumption that the asset will not be actively trading at that specific time. With over 18 months until settlement, the market is illiquid and the probability distribution remains largely unformed, making the current odds a reflection of minimal trading activity rather than conviction.
Historical precedent for XRP price predictions shows significant volatility tied to regulatory developments. The asset experienced substantial price swings following the SEC's December 2023 summary judgment in its case against Ripple Labs, which clarified XRP's status as a non-security under certain circumstances. Comparable 18-month-forward markets on major cryptocurrencies typically see probabilities shift materially only as catalysts approach; the current flat pricing suggests traders are waiting for concrete information before committing capital.
Key catalysts through 2026 include potential regulatory clarity from ongoing litigation, Ripple's business developments, and macroeconomic shifts affecting cryptocurrency markets broadly. The XRP/USDT pair remains one of Binance's most liquid trading venues, making data availability at settlement unlikely to be problematic. Traders should monitor SEC policy shifts and any announcements regarding XRP's regulatory classification, as these have historically driven significant repricing in forward markets.
XAP is a 16-bit and 32-bit RISC processor architecture developed by Cambridge Consultants. Its design enables use in mixed-signal integrated circuits for sensor or wireless applications including Bluetooth, Zigbee, GPS, RFID or Near Field Communication chips. These integrated circuits are typically used in low-cost, high-volume products that are battery-powe
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "XRP price on May 13?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $56K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for xrp contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $371 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: