Trade: Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any AI or LLM by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The charge or indictment of a company or organization behind the AI or large language model will not be sufficient. Charges or indictments must be of the AI or LLM itself.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $4K
- Total Volume
- $37K
- 24h Volume
- $106
- Open Interest
- $7K
Market outcomes
| Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? | 9% YES | 92% NO |
Market context
The question centres on whether any US Federal or State jurisdiction will formally indict or charge an artificial intelligence system itself—rather than the company developing it—before the end of 2026. This represents a novel legal frontier. Current US criminal law treats legal personhood narrowly; corporations can be charged as entities, but no AI system has yet been prosecuted as a defendant. The 9% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial legal and procedural barriers to such an outcome within the settlement window.
Comparable precedent is sparse. Corporate criminal liability emerged gradually through case law and statute; AI charging would require either novel statutory frameworks or aggressive reinterpretation of existing law by prosecutors. No jurisdiction has signalled imminent plans to charge an AI directly. The closest analogue—holding companies liable for algorithmic harms—has proceeded through civil rather than criminal channels. Courts have been cautious about expanding criminal liability into emerging technology domains without legislative guidance, suggesting prosecutors would face significant hurdles in securing indictments that survive legal challenge.
Traders should monitor legislative developments in states like California and New York, where AI regulation has advanced furthest, and watch for high-profile AI-related harms that might prompt aggressive prosecutorial action. The Biden administration's AI executive order and ongoing Congressional discussions around AI accountability could shift incentives, though statutory changes typically lag events by months or years. Any major incident attributed to an AI system causing death or substantial financial loss could accelerate consideration of criminal charges, though prosecutors would still face the threshold question of whether existing law permits charging the system itself rather than its creators.
Wikipedia Context
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A Charge to Keep I Have"A Charge to Keep I Have" is a hymn written by Charles Wesley. It was first published in 1762 in Wesley's Short Hymns on Select Passages of the Holy Scriptures. The words are based on Leviticus 8:35. It is most commonly sung to the hymn tune Boylston by Lowell Mason.
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A Charge to KeepA Charge to Keep is a 1999 book written by then-Governor of Texas George W. Bush, with a foreword by Karen Hughes. Later editions have the sub-title My Journey To The White House.
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A Charmed LifeA Charmed Life is a 1955 novel written by the American novelist Mary McCarthy.
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AichardusSaint Aichardus was a Frankish Benedictine monk and abbot known for his austerity. He became abbot of Jumièges Abbey, a major religious center that was home to 900 monks. His feast day is 15 September.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 9% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $1111 if YES resolves true — a 1011% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$37K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for world contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $106 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 9%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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