Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? | 2% YES | 98% NO |
A State of Siege declaration in Chile would represent an extraordinary constitutional measure, suspending ordinary legal guarantees and concentrating executive power during a period deemed to threaten national security or public order. Under Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, the President may declare such a state, which becomes legally binding unless Congress explicitly rejects it within five days. The current 2% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the low baseline risk of such a declaration occurring within the next eighteen months, though the mechanism itself remains available to any sitting president facing severe institutional breakdown or security crisis.
Chile's recent political history provides limited precedent for State of Siege declarations. The most recent invocation occurred in 1990, following the transition from military rule, and before that during the Pinochet era. Since democratic restoration, successive governments have managed civil unrest—including the 2019–2020 protest cycle and subsequent gang violence in prisons—without resorting to this constitutional tool. The preference for alternative emergency measures and targeted security legislation has established a norm against its use, anchoring the low probability assessment.
Traders should monitor developments in Chile's security environment, particularly gang-related violence in the penitentiary system and organised crime activity in southern regions, alongside any significant political instability or institutional crisis. Recent reporting from mid-2024 documented prison overcrowding and gang control as persistent challenges, but no credible political movement toward State of Siege declaration has emerged. Congressional composition and the incumbent administration's appetite for extraordinary measures would be critical catalysts should conditions deteriorate materially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$51K in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for world contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $121 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 2%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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