Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 14°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 15°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 16°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 17°C | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 18°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 19°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 20°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 21°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
On 4 May 2026, the lowest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will determine which temperature range resolves this market. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC that day, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's historical data for the specific station. Current order book activity on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, indicating either minimal trading volume or that participants view certain ranges as effectively impossible given seasonal norms.
Tokyo's May temperatures typically range between 15–25°C at their daily lows, with historical data from Haneda showing May minimums rarely dip below 10°C except in anomalous years. The 0% probability across all ranges suggests the market may be thinly traded or awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts. Late April and early May weather patterns in Tokyo are shaped by the transition from spring to early summer, with occasional cold fronts from the north still possible but increasingly rare.
Traders monitoring this market should track Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in late April 2026, which will provide the most reliable 10-day outlook for the Tokyo region. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during early 2026 could influence whether cooler air masses reach the Kanto region. The lack of current liquidity suggests this market may attract activity only as May approaches and forecasters narrow their predictions, making early positioning potentially illiquid but potentially valuable if seasonal patterns shift unexpectedly.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 4?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$22K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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