Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 12°C or below | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 13°C | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 14°C | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 15°C | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| 16°C | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| 17°C | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| 18°C | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| 19°C | 7% YES | 93% NO |
The market concerns the lowest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 13 May 2026, with settlement based on historical data from Weather Underground. The current order book implies a 1% probability that the daily minimum will fall into the lowest temperature range offered, suggesting traders assess an extremely low likelihood of unusually cold conditions on that date.
May in Tokyo typically experiences mild to warm temperatures as the region transitions into early summer. Historical data shows May daily minimums at Haneda average around 16–18°C, with readings below 10°C occurring rarely in this month. The 1% implied probability reflects the statistical improbability of a significant cold snap during late spring, when seasonal warming is well established. Comparable May weather patterns from recent years show consistent mild overnight temperatures, making extreme lows a tail-risk event rather than a baseline expectation.
Traders monitoring this market should track Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly any alerts regarding unusual atmospheric patterns or cold fronts moving through the region. Broader Northern Hemisphere weather systems, including potential interactions between polar and subtropical air masses, could shift probabilities if forecasted several weeks ahead. The settlement window closes at midday on 13 May, leaving minimal time for forecast revisions once the day begins, making early-season trend data from late April and early May 2026 the primary catalyst for meaningful probability shifts.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 13?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$392 in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $392 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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