Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 26, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 3 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 0 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 4 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 6+ | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market resolves based on whether the Sun produces one or more major space weather events during the week of 26 April to 2 May 2026. Major events are defined as geomagnetic storms rated G3 or stronger, solar radiation storms rated S3 or stronger, or radio blackouts rated R3 or stronger. The Space Weather Prediction Center issues these classifications based on real-time solar monitoring and particle flux measurements. The current order book on Polymarket implies zero probability of such an event occurring, reflecting either low solar activity forecasts or the inherent rarity of major events in any given week.
Historically, major space weather events (G3+, S3+, R3+) occur irregularly but with measurable frequency during active solar cycles. The current solar cycle 25 has produced several significant storms since its 2019 onset, though weeks without major events substantially outnumber those with them. In 2024, major events occurred sporadically rather than in clusters, with months of quiet periods interspersed with active days. This baseline context—that major events are uncommon but not exceptional—typically anchors probability estimates between 5–15% for any given week during an active cycle, making the current 0% reading notable.
Traders monitoring this market should track the Space Weather Prediction Center's 3-day forecasts and solar wind data from NOAA satellites, updated daily. Coronal mass ejections visible on solar imagery can signal elevated risk within 24–48 hours. The Sun's current rotation and active region configuration will determine event likelihood; forecasters typically flag heightened risk when multiple sunspot groups face Earth. Recent solar activity levels and any alerts from SWPC will be the primary catalysts driving probability shifts during the settlement window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many major Space Weather events this week? (April 26 - May 2)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$14K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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