Trade: Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 1?

Market context

On 1 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Warsaw Chopin Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges in Celsius. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature brackets on Polymarket's order book, suggesting either illiquidity in the contract or that traders have not yet positioned ahead of the settlement window closing at midday UTC on that date. Resolution will depend on historical data from Weather Underground's records for the airport station, which serves as the official meteorological reference point for Warsaw.

Warsaw's June temperatures typically range between 15–25°C, with historical highs occasionally reaching 28–30°C during warm spells. The 0% probability reading across all brackets is unusual and likely reflects minimal order book depth rather than genuine market consensus that no temperature will be recorded. Early June sits at the transition into summer conditions across central Europe, when high-pressure systems can occasionally drive temperatures above seasonal norms, though sustained heat waves remain less common than in July or August.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting updates from mid-May onwards, particularly from Météo-France or the German Weather Service, which publish extended outlooks. Any significant warming pattern developing across central Europe in late May would be a key catalyst for reassessing temperature range probabilities. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Weather Underground's historical database accuracy for the specific station, making data availability the primary operational dependency.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 1?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$67K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

Last 24 hours alone saw $555 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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