Trade: Highest temperature in Taipei on May 13?

Market context

On 13 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will determine which temperature range resolves as YES. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC that day, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's historical data for the airport station. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, indicating either minimal trading activity or a technical issue with market initialisation rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded.

Taipei's May temperatures are historically stable, with average highs around 29–31°C and extreme records rarely exceeding 35°C. The 0% probability across all ranges is unusual for a weather market and likely reflects sparse liquidity rather than predictive insight. Comparable Polymarket weather contracts typically show distributed probabilities across multiple temperature bands, with May temperatures in subtropical locations clustering around seasonal norms unless specific weather systems are forecast.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Taiwan's Central Weather Administration in the weeks preceding the settlement date, as May marks the onset of Taiwan's typhoon season. Any significant weather system tracking towards northern Taiwan could suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems would elevate them toward or beyond historical May averages. Current meteorological outlooks for May 2026 remain unavailable, making early positioning speculative until seasonal forecasts materialise in April.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Taipei on May 13?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$4K in lifetime turnover and $48K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.

Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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