Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 55°F or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 56-57°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 58-59°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 60-61°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 62-63°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 64-65°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 66-67°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 68-69°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
On 2 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from historical weather data recorded at this official National Weather Service station, measured in Fahrenheit and finalised through Wunderground's archive. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, indicating either minimal liquidity or a technical state where no traders have yet positioned themselves on this specific outcome.
Dallas's May temperatures typically range between 75°F and 92°F based on thirty-year climate normals, though the city regularly experiences days exceeding 90°F during late spring. Historical data from May 2025 recorded a high of 88°F, whilst May 2024 saw peaks near 95°F. The wide historical variance—spanning roughly 20 degrees—reflects how spring weather patterns in north Texas remain volatile before summer heat solidifies. Early May sits at an inflection point between spring variability and the onset of consistent heat, making precise range forecasting inherently uncertain.
Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather pattern developments in April 2026, particularly whether a ridge of high pressure establishes early across the southern United States. Long-range climate outlooks from NOAA, typically issued monthly, will signal whether May leans warmer or cooler than normal. Proximity to the settlement date means forecasts become increasingly reliable only in the final week before 2 May, when meteorological models converge on actual atmospheric conditions rather than climatological averages.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Dallas on May 2?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$44K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: