Trade: Tennessee Governor Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $7K
- Total Volume
- $3K
- 24h Volume
- $210
- Open Interest
- $607
Market outcomes
| Democrat | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Option A | — | |
| Option C | — | |
| Option E | — | |
| Option G | — | |
| Option I | — | |
| Other | — | |
| Republican | 89% YES | 11% NO |
Market context
Tennessee will hold its next gubernatorial election in November 2026, with the winner taking office in January 2027. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing a 5% probability for the YES option, which represents the Democratic nominee winning the race. This implies roughly 95% probability for a Republican victory, reflecting Tennessee's status as a solidly Republican state at the statewide level.
Tennessee has voted Republican in every gubernatorial election since 2002, with incumbent Republican Bill Lee winning re-election in 2022 by 27 percentage points. The state's partisan lean has shifted considerably rightward over the past two decades; Democrats last won a gubernatorial race here in 1998. Historical precedent suggests the Republican nominee enters 2026 as a heavy favourite, though the specific identity of candidates and campaign dynamics remain unknowns that could shift probabilities materially.
Key catalysts for traders include the formal announcement of Democratic and Republican nominees, typically occurring through primary elections or party conventions in 2025 and early 2026. The Republican primary field and any potential divisive primary contest could affect general election dynamics, whilst Democratic candidate selection will determine whether the party fields a competitive nominee or a sacrificial candidate. Economic conditions in Tennessee, national political momentum heading into the midterm cycle, and turnout patterns in urban centres like Nashville and Memphis will also influence the race's competitiveness as November 2026 approaches.
Wikipedia Context
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Governor of TennesseeThe governor of Tennessee is the head of government of the U.S. state of Tennessee and the commander-in-chief of the state's military forces. The governor is the only official in the Tennessee state government who is directly elected by the voters of the entire state.
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Tennessee Governor's Academy for Math and Science
The Tennessee Governor's Academy for Mathematics and Science, commonly Tennessee Governor's Academy or TGA, was a residential high school located in Knoxville, Tennessee on the campus of The Tennessee School for the Deaf (TSD). It was founded in 2007 by Governor Phil Bredesen as part of an effort to provide challenges for students across the academic spectru
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Tennessee Governor's Task Force on Marijuana Eradication
The Tennessee Governor's Task Force on Marijuana Eradication (GTFME), a multi-agency law enforcement task force founded in 1983, is managed by the Office of the Governor of Tennessee composed of local, state agencies organized expressly to eradicate illegal cannabis cultivation and trafficking in Tennessee. The Governor's Task Force is operated by the Tennes
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Tennessee Governor's MansionThe Tennessee Governor's Mansion, also known as the Tennessee Residence, in Oak Hill, Tennessee, a suburb of Nashville, is the official residence of the governor of Tennessee and their family. It is a three-story Georgian-style mansion that was built as a private home for William Ridley Wills and his family in 1929. It is on a 10-acre (4.0 ha) tract about 5
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Tennessee Governor Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$3K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for us presidential election contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $210 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Tennessee Governor Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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