Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republican | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Option D | — | |
| Option H | — | |
| Option A | — | |
| Option E | — | |
| Option I | — | |
| Option B | — | |
| Option F | — | |
Massachusetts will hold its gubernatorial election in November 2026, with the winner taking office in January 2027. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 5% probability for the YES resolution, reflecting expectations that a Democrat will win the seat. Massachusetts has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992 and has elected Democratic governors in five of the last six cycles, with Republican Charlie Baker's tenure (2015–2023) being the notable exception. Baker, a moderate with high approval ratings, benefited from a fractured Democratic primary in 2014. The state's Democratic lean has strengthened considerably since then, making Republican victory unlikely absent significant political realignment.
Key catalysts will include formal candidate announcements, typically occurring through 2025 and into early 2026. Current Governor Maura Healey, a Democrat elected in 2022, has not publicly committed to seeking re-election, though sitting governors typically run for second terms. If Healey declines to run, a competitive Democratic primary could emerge. Republican recruitment efforts will be critical; the party must identify a credible nominee capable of competing in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly two-to-one. National political conditions in 2026, including midterm dynamics and any shifts in voter sentiment, will influence both candidate decisions and general election viability. The Massachusetts primary elections are scheduled for September 2026, setting the final candidate matchup roughly two months before the general election.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Massachusetts Governor Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$25K in lifetime turnover and $31K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for us presidential election contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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