Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream XRP/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| XRP Up or Down - May 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market captures a fifteen-minute window for XRP/USD pricing on 6 May 2026, settling at 21:00 UTC. The resolution hinges on whether the Chainlink data feed shows a price at 21:00 that matches or exceeds the opening level at 20:45. The specificity of both the time window and the data source—Chainlink's XRP/USD stream rather than spot exchanges—creates a narrow, technical resolution criterion that differs from how most traders monitor XRP movements across fragmented markets.
Fifteen-minute price windows in cryptocurrency typically exhibit high volatility relative to their duration, though directional bias depends heavily on broader market conditions in the preceding hours. Historical precedent suggests that when crowd probability reaches 100% on such short-dated contracts, it often reflects either genuine conviction about intraday momentum or illiquidity in the order book creating extreme pricing. The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book warrants scrutiny: such certainty in a fifteen-minute window is uncommon unless significant volume has moved the book sharply, or liquidity remains thin enough that marginal trades establish the edge.
Traders should monitor XRP's performance during the 20:30–20:45 period preceding settlement, as any sharp moves or news flow in that window could shift the underlying trajectory. Regulatory announcements affecting Ripple, broader cryptocurrency market swings, or technical levels near the opening price would all influence whether the close sits above or at the entry point. The Chainlink feed's latency and any potential data anomalies should also be considered, as resolution depends entirely on that specific oracle rather than consensus pricing across venues.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "XRP Up or Down - May 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for up or down contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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