Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Hyperliquid's price movement over a five-minute window on 6 May between 12:55pm and 1:00pm ET will determine this market's resolution. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for an upward or flat price movement, suggesting traders are pricing in minimal downside risk during this narrow intraday window. This extreme confidence warrants scrutiny, as five-minute price windows typically exhibit high volatility relative to their duration, and such lopsided probabilities often emerge when liquidity is thin or when traders expect a specific catalyst to occur precisely within the settlement period.
Historical precedent for intraday crypto markets shows that five-minute windows rarely sustain unanimous directional conviction unless tied to scheduled announcements or data releases. Comparable Polymarket micro-duration markets have frequently resolved against crowded positions when external catalysts fail to materialise or when liquidity dries up, causing price slippage in unexpected directions. The 100% probability here suggests either exceptionally strong conviction around a known event or insufficient order book depth to challenge the prevailing position.
Traders should monitor Hyperliquid's official communications channels for any announcements scheduled between 12:55pm and 1:00pm ET on the settlement date, as well as broader cryptocurrency market movements during that window. The Chainlink HYPE/USD data stream will serve as the sole arbiter of price, meaning any discrepancies between spot exchanges and Chainlink's aggregated feed could create resolution disputes. Volatility in Bitcoin or Ethereum during this period could also influence Hyperliquid's price action, particularly if the token exhibits correlated trading behaviour.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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