Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 2, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market tracks whether Hyperliquid's price will be higher or equal at 11:25PM ET on 2 May compared to 11:20PM ET the same evening—a five-minute window. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects extreme scepticism that HYPE will move upwards during this brief interval, though such compressed timeframes typically exhibit minimal directional conviction given the noise inherent in five-minute price movements. The current probability formation suggests either substantial sell-side positioning or a lack of active liquidity on the "Up" side of the order book.
Five-minute price windows historically resolve based on intraday volatility patterns rather than fundamental catalysts. Comparable ultra-short-duration markets on Polymarket show that such tight timeframes often settle on the basis of random walk behaviour, with resolution depending heavily on whether any significant news or trading activity occurs precisely within the window. Hyperliquid, a decentralised perpetual futures exchange, experiences continuous trading across global markets, meaning price discovery is ongoing rather than event-dependent.
Traders monitoring this market should note that Chainlink's HYPE/USD data stream aggregates pricing from multiple sources, and any discrepancies between spot and perpetual markets during the settlement window could affect resolution. No scheduled announcements or protocol updates are anticipated for 2 May. The primary variable remains whether organic trading volume or liquidation cascades drive directional movement during those five minutes, with the current zero probability suggesting the market has priced in a strong expectation of either downward movement or sideways consolidation.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 2, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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