Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| May 31 | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| May 15 | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| December 31 | 92% YES | 8% NO |
The Trump administration's approach to unclassified information on unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) and potential extraterrestrial evidence will determine whether new files become publicly available before the end of 2026. The current 51% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about executive intent, with the order book showing meaningful two-sided interest. Trump has previously signalled openness to UAP transparency—in 2020 he expedited declassification of JFK assassination documents—though follow-through on such commitments has been inconsistent. The resolution hinges on whether the administration treats UAP disclosure as a priority or deprioritises it amid competing policy demands.
Historical precedent offers mixed signals. The Biden administration released limited UAP materials through the National Archives and intelligence community reviews, though sceptics argue these contained minimal substantive new information. The 2023 congressional testimonies by military witnesses generated public pressure but no corresponding executive declassification orders. Trump's previous term saw the 2020 Pentagon UAP videos released, suggesting receptiveness to some transparency, yet no wholesale document dumps occurred. The current probability reflects this ambiguity: sufficient historical willingness to make declassification plausible, but no guarantee of execution.
Traders should monitor announcements from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and Department of Defence regarding UAP review initiatives. Congressional pressure, particularly from the House Intelligence Committee, could catalyse action. Media reporting on classified UAP incidents—such as recent coverage of military encounters—may influence political calculus. The administration's broader declassification agenda and resource allocation to intelligence reviews will signal whether UAP files receive prioritised attention through end-2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$16K in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for uap contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $8K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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