Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 55 | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| 58 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawn | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 53 | 16% YES | 84% NO |
| 60+ | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| 57 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| ≤49 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 50 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
Trump's second term began in January 2025, and the Federal Reserve chair position will require Senate confirmation when he nominates a successor to the current chair. The market is pricing the probability that 50 or more senators vote to confirm his nominee at 34%, implying significant partisan division on the confirmation vote. The settlement hinges on the formal nomination being submitted to the Senate and a final confirmation vote occurring before the end of 2026.
Fed chair confirmations have historically commanded broad bipartisan support, with recent chairs Jerome Powell (80 votes in 2022) and Janet Yellen (56 votes in 2014) securing comfortable majorities. However, the political environment has shifted markedly since those votes. The current 53–47 Republican Senate majority means Trump's nominee needs only four Democratic votes to reach 50 (or three if the vice president breaks a 50–50 tie). The 34% probability on Polymarket's order book reflects uncertainty about whether Trump nominates a consensus figure or a more ideologically contentious candidate, and whether Democrats view the nominee as sufficiently orthodox on monetary policy to justify support.
Key catalysts include Trump's formal announcement of his nominee, which typically triggers immediate market and political reaction, and any public statements from moderate Senate Democrats signalling openness to confirmation. The timeline remains fluid—nominations could occur within months or be delayed into 2026. Market participants should monitor Federal Reserve policy debates and any signals about whether Trump intends to prioritise loyalty or technical credentials in his selection.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$66K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $70 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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