Today

Trade: XRP Up or Down on June 1?

0% YES 100% NO

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT May 31 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT May 31 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
—
Total Volume
$3K
24h Volume
—
Open Interest
$2K
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Market outcomes

XRP Up or Down on June 1? 0% YES100% NO

Market context

This market resolves based on whether XRP/USDT closes higher or lower at noon ET on 1 June 2026 compared to noon ET on 31 May 2026 on Binance. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects extreme confidence in a price movement upward over this 24-hour window, with no traders currently willing to back a downward move at any price level. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC on 1 June, allowing roughly four hours after the noon ET candle close for final price confirmation.

Single-day directional bets on major cryptocurrencies typically see non-zero probabilities across both outcomes unless extraordinary circumstances create consensus. XRP has historically exhibited intraday volatility ranging 2–5% during normal market conditions, making flat-line probability distributions common for 24-hour windows. The current 0% reading suggests either a technical issue with order book depth, an absence of contrarian traders, or genuine market conviction that downward movement is implausible given current positioning or expected news flow.

Traders should monitor regulatory announcements affecting XRP, broader cryptocurrency market movements, and any Ripple company developments scheduled near the resolution window. Bitcoin and Ethereum price action typically drives altcoin sentiment; a significant rally in major pairs could mechanically support XRP upside. Conversely, unexpected regulatory headwinds or macroeconomic shocks could reverse the directional bias. The thin liquidity at 0% suggests limited order book depth, meaning even modest contrarian positions could shift implied probabilities substantially.

Wikipedia Context

  • XRP Ledger

    The XRP Ledger (XRPL), also called the Ripple Protocol, is a cryptocurrency platform launched in 2012 by Ripple Labs. The XRPL employs the native cryptocurrency known as XRP, and supports tokens, cryptocurrency or other units of value such as frequent flyer miles or mobile minutes.

  • XP-PEN
    XP-PEN

    XP-PEN is a graphics tablet development and distribution company, originally established in Japan in 2005 by Taiwanese manufacturer P-Active and now headquartered in Shenzhen, China, with a research and development office in California, United States. In 2019, XPPen became a holding subsidiary of Hanvon Ugee Group, a graphics tablet manufacturer who, like XP

  • Xi Puppis
    Xi Puppis

    Xi Puppis is a multiple star system in the southern constellation of Puppis. With an apparent visual magnitude of 3.35, it is one of the brighter members of this constellation. Based on parallax measurements made during the Hipparcos mission, it is located approximately 1,200 light-years from the Sun, with a 7.5% margin of error.

  • XAP processor

    XAP is a 16-bit and 32-bit RISC processor architecture developed by Cambridge Consultants. Its design enables use in mixed-signal integrated circuits for sensor or wireless applications including Bluetooth, Zigbee, GPS, RFID or Near Field Communication chips. These integrated circuits are typically used in low-cost, high-volume products that are battery-powe

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "XRP Up or Down on June 1?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 0% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for today contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "XRP Up or Down on June 1?"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "XRP Up or Down on June 1?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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