Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| January 31, 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30, 2026 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
Thailand and Cambodia have a fraught history of border disputes and military tensions, though direct aerial strikes between the two nations remain extraordinarily rare. The question posed here concerns whether Thailand will conduct a drone, missile, or air strike against Cambodian territory or official Cambodian diplomatic facilities by end of June 2026. The Polymarket order book currently reflects a 0% implied probability, suggesting traders assess such an escalation as virtually impossible within the settlement window.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance. The two countries last experienced significant military clashes along their shared border in 2008–2011, centred on the disputed Preah Vihear temple complex, though these involved ground forces rather than aerial bombardment. More recent tensions have centred on maritime boundary disputes and fishing incidents rather than direct military confrontation. Thailand's military establishment has generally avoided unilateral strikes on Cambodian soil, preferring diplomatic channels and ASEAN mediation. The current zero probability reflects this historical restraint and the absence of any declared military objective that would warrant such action.
Traders monitoring this market should track announcements regarding border incidents, particularly any Thai military statements about cross-border threats or Cambodian weapons caches. Developments in Thai-Cambodian diplomatic relations, shifts in ASEAN positioning, and any escalation of maritime disputes could alter risk calculus. Recent reporting from regional security analysts has not flagged imminent military escalation between the two nations as of late 2024, though border management remains an ongoing friction point.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Thailand strikes Cambodia by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$67K in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for thailand cambodia contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $30 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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