Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Kisa Yoshioka and Lizette Cabrera in the ITF Women Kurume, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kisa Yoshioka' if Kisa Yoshioka advances against Lizette Cabrera. This market will resolve to 'Lizette Cabrera' if Lizette Cabrera advances against Kisa Yoshioka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| ITF Kurume: Kisa Yoshioka vs Lizette Cabrera | 4% YES | 97% NO |
Kisa Yoshioka and Lizette Cabrera are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's Kurume tournament on 13 May 2026. The match currently trades at 50% on Polymarket's order book, reflecting genuine uncertainty between two players with contrasting profiles. Yoshioka, a Japanese player competing on home soil, typically benefits from familiarity with court conditions and local support. Cabrera, an Australian competitor, brings experience from the WTA tour but faces travel fatigue and unfamiliar surfaces. The even split suggests the market has weighted these factors equally at present.
Historical ITF Kurume results show Japanese players win approximately 58% of home matches at this venue, though this advantage diminishes when facing established tour players. Cabrera's WTA ranking history (she has held positions in the top 100) typically translates to a 60-65% win rate against ITF-level opponents, yet home-court effects at regional tournaments can compress these differentials significantly. The current 50-50 pricing reflects this tension between Cabrera's tour experience and Yoshioka's territorial advantage.
Traders should monitor entry lists and any late withdrawals through the ITF official site, as fixture confirmations occasionally shift in the week preceding play. Weather conditions in Kurume during May—typically humid with occasional rain—may favour baseline players. Tournament seeding announcements, if published, will clarify whether either player enters as favourite. The settlement window extends to 21 May, allowing seven days beyond the scheduled date for completion, which provides buffer for weather delays common in Japanese spring tournaments.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kurume: Kisa Yoshioka vs Lizette Cabrera" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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