Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolo Toffanin and Niklas Schell in the ITF Men Ljubljana, originally scheduled for June 2, 2026 at 7:45AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicolo Toffanin' if Nicolo Toffanin advances against Niklas Schell. This market will resolve to 'Niklas Schell' if Niklas Schell advances against Nicolo Toffanin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Ljubljana: Nicolo Toffanin vs Niklas Schell | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Completed Match | 61% YES | 39% NO |
Nicolo Toffanin and Niklas Schell are scheduled to meet in the ITF Men's Ljubljana tournament on 2 June 2026. The market currently reflects a 39% implied probability for Toffanin's advancement, suggesting the order book favours Schell at roughly 61%. Both players compete on the ITF circuit, where match outcomes depend heavily on surface conditions, recent form, and head-to-head records. The settlement window closes on 9 June, allowing a seven-day grace period for rescheduling without triggering a 50-50 resolution.
ITF clay-court tournaments in Eastern Europe typically favour players with consistent baseline games and experience on slower surfaces. Toffanin and Schell's recent ITF results, ranking trajectories, and performance on clay will inform whether the current 39% probability undervalues or overvalues Toffanin's chances. Historical ITF matches show that seeding, player momentum, and injury status shift probabilities meaningfully in the days before competition. The market's current pricing suggests traders perceive Schell as the stronger prospect, though this assessment remains subject to revision as tournament draws are finalised and pre-match information emerges.
Traders should monitor ITF official announcements regarding final draw confirmation, any withdrawal notices, and weather forecasts for Ljubljana in early June. Court surface conditions and tournament scheduling changes can alter match dynamics. The seven-day delay clause means matches postponed beyond 9 June without resolution would settle at 50-50, creating tail-risk considerations for positions held through the settlement window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Ljubljana: Nicolo Toffanin vs Niklas Schell" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$245 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $245 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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