Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between William Mirarchi and Pablo Aunion in the ITF Men Kursumlijska Banja, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'William Mirarchi' if William Mirarchi advances against Pablo Aunion. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Aunion' if Pablo Aunion advances against William Mirarchi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: William Mirarchi vs Pablo Aunion | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
William Mirarchi and Pablo Aunion are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's Kursumlijska Banja tournament on 27 May 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional tennis fixture on the ITF circuit, where both players compete for ranking points and prize money. The settlement window closes on 3 June 2026, allowing a week-long buffer beyond the scheduled date to account for potential delays or rescheduling common at regional ITF events.
The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects minimal trading activity rather than certainty of outcome. ITF Challenger matches at this tier typically attract sparse liquidity, with most traders focusing capital on ATP and WTA fixtures. Historical patterns show that when order books are thin, crowd-implied probabilities can become unreliable proxies for genuine match expectations. Both players' recent form, head-to-head records, and surface-specific performance data would normally inform pricing, but the absence of meaningful bids and offers suggests the market has simply not yet attracted sufficient participation to establish a meaningful probability distribution.
Traders monitoring this fixture should track tournament scheduling confirmations and any player withdrawal announcements in the week preceding 27 May. ITF events occasionally experience fixture changes or cancellations due to player injuries or administrative adjustments. Court surface conditions at Kursumlijska Banja—typically clay—and weather forecasts closer to the event date could influence match dynamics. The resolution criteria specify that matches delayed beyond seven days without completion trigger a 50-50 settlement, creating a specific risk boundary for traders assessing tail scenarios.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kursumlijska Banja: William Mirarchi vs Pablo Aunion" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$164 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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