Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Carlota Martinez Cirez and Yelyzaveta Kotliar in the ITF Women Bastad, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 3:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlota Martinez Cirez' if Carlota Martinez Cirez advances against Yelyzaveta Kotliar. This market will resolve to 'Yelyzaveta Kotliar' if Yelyzaveta Kotliar advances against Carlota Martinez Cirez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Bastad: Carlota Martinez Cirez vs Yelyzaveta Kotliar | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Carlota Martinez Cirez faces Yelyzaveta Kotliar in the ITF Women's tournament at Bastad, scheduled for 13 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 54% probability for Martinez Cirez's victory, reflecting modest favouritism. The settlement window closes on 20 May, allowing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled match date before the market resolves to a 50-50 split if no result is determined.
Both players compete regularly on the ITF circuit, where match outcomes depend heavily on recent form, surface adaptation, and head-to-head records. Martinez Cirez's slight edge in implied probability suggests traders perceive a marginal advantage, though the 54-46 split indicates genuine uncertainty. ITF Women's matches at this level typically feature high variance; upsets are common when lower-ranked players face comparable opposition on clay courts, where Bastad's surface may favour specific playing styles or movement patterns.
Traders should monitor player announcements regarding participation, any injury updates in the fortnight before 13 May, and recent tournament results from both competitors. Weather conditions at Bastad—particularly rain delays—represent a material risk given the seven-day resolution window. Recent ITF scheduling has shown increased cancellations due to weather and player withdrawals; confirmation of both players' attendance closer to the event date will be critical for position management. The order book's current depth will signal whether institutional traders are building positions ahead of late-stage information.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Bastad: Carlota Martinez Cirez vs Yelyzaveta Kotliar" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$57 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $57 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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