Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Billy Harris and Petr Brunclik in the Oeiras 4, originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Billy Harris' if Billy Harris advances against Petr Brunclik. This market will resolve to 'Petr Brunclik' if Petr Brunclik advances against Billy Harris. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 41% YES | 59% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 75% YES | 25% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik Set 1 Winner | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik Match O/U 21.5 | 55% YES | 45% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik Match O/U 22.5 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik Match O/U 23.5 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
Billy Harris and Petr Brunclik are scheduled to meet in the Oeiras 4 tournament on 11 May 2026, with the match originally set for 5:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 41% implied probability for Harris, suggesting the market views Brunclik as the slight favourite. This probability is formed through real-time trading activity on the platform's order book, where traders continuously adjust positions based on their assessment of each player's likelihood of advancing.
Harris, a British player, brings home-court advantage considerations within European clay tournaments, though Oeiras is a relatively modest ATP Challenger event. Brunclik, a Czech competitor, has competed regularly on the Challenger circuit. Historical patterns in lower-tier Challenger matches show high volatility in outcomes, with seeding, recent form, and surface preference creating substantial variance. The 41% probability for Harris suggests the market is pricing in either Brunclik's recent form advantage or a perceived edge on clay, though the spread remains competitive enough to indicate genuine uncertainty.
Traders should monitor official ATP Challenger announcements regarding final seedings and draw confirmation, typically released 3–5 days before the tournament begins. Any withdrawal announcements, injury updates, or schedule changes would trigger immediate repricing on the order book. The settlement window closes 18 May 2026, allowing a week beyond the scheduled date for completion; matches abandoned or delayed beyond that window resolve to 50-50, creating a tail risk that traders should account for when sizing positions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $54K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $7K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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