Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Facundo Acosta and Henry Bernet in the Francavilla, originally scheduled for May 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Facundo Acosta' if Facundo Acosta advances against Henry Bernet. This market will resolve to 'Henry Bernet' if Henry Bernet advances against Facundo Acosta. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Francavilla: Facundo Acosta vs Henry Bernet | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Francavilla: Facundo Acosta vs Henry Bernet Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Francavilla: Facundo Acosta vs Henry Bernet Set 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Francavilla: Facundo Acosta vs Henry Bernet Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Francavilla: Facundo Acosta vs Henry Bernet Match O/U 21.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Francavilla: Facundo Acosta vs Henry Bernet Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Francavilla: Facundo Acosta vs Henry Bernet Match O/U 22.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Francavilla: Facundo Acosta vs Henry Bernet Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Facundo Acosta and Henry Bernet are scheduled to meet in a tennis match at the Francavilla tournament on 4 May 2026, with the market settling on 11 May. The current order book on Polymarket shows a 100% implied probability for Acosta's advancement, reflecting either strong consensus on the matchup or minimal liquidity at the extremes. At this probability level, the market is pricing in near-certainty of either a completed match with Acosta winning or a technical resolution favouring him—though the settlement rules allow for 50-50 splits if the match is cancelled, delayed beyond seven days, or abandoned mid-play.
Historical patterns in lower-tier ATP and Challenger-level tennis markets show that 100% probabilities typically emerge when one player is substantially ranked higher, carries recent momentum, or when the opponent has withdrawal risk. Without current ranking data or recent form sheets, the extreme probability suggests either Acosta holds a decisive edge in the matchup or Bernet faces fitness or scheduling concerns heading into May. Comparable Challenger markets have occasionally collapsed from such extremes when unseeded players perform above expectation or when late withdrawals trigger the tie resolution.
Traders should monitor official Francavilla draw confirmations and any player injury announcements through early May. Tournament scheduling changes, weather delays, or late withdrawals would shift the market substantially. The seven-day grace period in the settlement rules means matches delayed from 4 May could still resolve decisively if completed by 11 May, though extended postponements would trigger the 50-50 clause and eliminate the current probability advantage.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Francavilla: Facundo Acosta vs Henry Bernet" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$47K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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