Trade: UFC Fight Night: Nicolas Dalby vs. Jeremiah Wells (Welterweight, Prelims)
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Nicolas Dalby" if Nicolas Dalby is officially declared the winner of the fight against Jeremiah Wells at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026. It will resolve to "Jeremiah Wells" if Jeremiah Wells is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $68K
- Total Volume
- $4K
- 24h Volume
- $725
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| Nicolas Dalby vs. Jeremiah Wells | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Dalby to win by KO/TKO? | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Wells to win by KO/TKO? | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Fight won by submission? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
Nicolas Dalby, the Danish welterweight with 21 UFC appearances, faces Jeremiah Wells in a preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa on 16 May 2026. The market currently reflects a 51% implied probability for Dalby's victory, suggesting near-parity in the order book on Polymarket. This represents a competitive matchup where neither fighter commands substantial backing, with the crowd-implied odds reflecting genuine uncertainty about the outcome.
Dalby's record demonstrates longevity in the welterweight division, though his recent trajectory has been mixed, with inconsistent performances against varied competition levels. Wells, by contrast, represents a less established profile within the UFC ecosystem. Historical precedent suggests that when experienced fighters with established track records face less-proven opponents in preliminary slots, the market typically prices experience at a modest premium—yet the current 51-49 split indicates traders are discounting Dalby's seniority, possibly reflecting concerns about his recent form or Wells's specific stylistic advantages.
Traders should monitor official UFC announcements regarding fighter health and any late changes to the card, as preliminary bouts occasionally face cancellation or rescheduling. The settlement window extends to 30 May 2026, providing a buffer beyond the fight date for official result confirmation. Any significant injury reports or withdrawal announcements in the fortnight preceding the event could shift the order book materially, as would detailed fight breakdowns from established MMA analysts closer to the event date.
Wikipedia Context
-
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. PratesUFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates was a mixed martial arts event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship that took place on May 2, 2026, at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia.
-
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. ZalalUFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal was a mixed martial arts event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship that took place on April 25, 2026, at the Meta Apex in Enterprise, Nevada, part of the Las Vegas Valley, United States.
-
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. CostaUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa is an upcoming mixed martial arts event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship that is scheduled to take place on May 16, 2026, at the Meta Apex in Enterprise, Nevada, part of the Las Vegas Valley, United States.
-
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. MalottUFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott was a mixed martial arts event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship that took place on April 18, 2026, at the Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ufc.com/events. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "UFC Fight Night: Nicolas Dalby vs. Jeremiah Wells (Welterweight, Prelims)" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$4K in lifetime turnover and $68K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $725 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "UFC Fight Night: Nicolas Dalby vs. Jeremiah Wells (Welterweight, Prelims)"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: