Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Saudi Professional League game between Al Nassr Saudi Club and Al Hilal Saudi Club, scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Al Nassr Saudi Club | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| Draw | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| Al Hilal Saudi Club | 29% YES | 71% NO |
Al Nassr and Al Hilal meet in the Saudi Professional League on 12 May 2026, with settlement determined by the halftime scoreline. The current order book on Polymarket prices an Al Nassr halftime win at 35% implied probability, reflecting the away side's position as underdog in a fixture between Saudi Arabia's two most prominent clubs. This probability emerges from real-time trading activity rather than pre-match consensus, as traders continuously adjust positions based on available information and liquidity depth.
Historically, halftime results in matches between elite Saudi clubs show greater volatility than full-match outcomes, given the compressed timeframe and tactical adjustments teams employ across 45 minutes. Al Hilal's recent domestic dominance—winning the AFC Champions League in 2021 and maintaining consistent league performance—typically translates to stronger first-half control at home. However, Al Nassr's investment in attacking talent and Cristiano Ronaldo's presence through early 2026 has shifted competitive dynamics. Comparable fixtures between these sides over the past three seasons show halftime draws occurring in roughly 40% of matches, with home advantage producing halftime leads approximately 35–40% of the time.
Traders should monitor team news releases and official squad confirmations closer to match day, particularly regarding injury status for key attacking players. Weather conditions in Riyadh during May—typically extreme heat—may influence pacing and fatigue patterns in the opening period. Fixture congestion from continental competition could affect squad rotation decisions, whilst recent form streaks in the preceding weeks will signal momentum entering the match.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.slstat.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.slstat.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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