Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Serie A game, scheduled for May 17 at 9:00 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Cagliari Calcio (-1.5) | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Torino FC (-1.5) | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| Cagliari Calcio (-2.5) | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| Torino FC (-2.5) | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 90% YES | 11% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 70% YES | 31% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 29% YES | 71% NO |
Cagliari Calcio will travel to Turin to face Torino FC on 17 May 2026 in a Serie A fixture scheduled for 9:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 26% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the market participant base views this event as relatively unlikely at present. This probability is being formed through live trading activity on the platform's order book, where buyers and sellers continuously adjust positions based on their assessments of the underlying match dynamics.
Historically, Cagliari's away record against mid-table Serie A sides has been mixed, though their performance trajectory in the 2025–26 season will be the primary determinant of how traders should interpret the current 26% level. Comparable fixtures between these clubs over the past three seasons show Torino has held a slight home advantage, winning two of the last four encounters at the Stadio Olimpico. The probability discount may reflect Cagliari's typical away-match vulnerability, though late-season form swings in Serie A can shift these baseline expectations substantially.
Traders should monitor team news releases and injury confirmations through May, as both squads' European competition schedules (if applicable) and domestic cup commitments will influence squad rotation decisions. Polymarket's settlement window closes on 17 May at 13:00 UTC, providing a narrow window after the 9:00 AM ET kick-off for final order book activity. Recent fixture congestion and player fatigue levels, typically reported by Italian football media outlets in the final weeks of the season, will be critical variables for reassessing the current implied probability.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.legaseriea.it/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Cagliari Calcio vs. Torino FC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.legaseriea.it/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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