Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Top 14 match between Montauban and Racing 92, scheduled for April 25 2026.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Montauban | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Racing 92 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Montauban and Racing 92 will meet in the French Top 14 on 25 April 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders are pricing either an extremely low likelihood of the event occurring or uncertainty about settlement criteria. With the settlement window closing on 2 May 2026, roughly a week after the scheduled fixture, there is minimal time for dispute resolution.
Racing 92 have historically been a stronger Top 14 side, competing regularly for playoff positions and European qualification, whilst Montauban have operated in the middle tier of the division. Head-to-head records and recent season form typically inform how markets price such matchups; a 0% probability for Montauban suggests the market is either heavily favouring Racing 92 or reflecting ambiguity about what constitutes a YES settlement condition. Comparable fixtures between mismatched Top 14 sides rarely trade at absolute extremes unless the outcome definition is exceptionally narrow.
Traders should monitor team news, injury reports, and any fixture postponements in the weeks preceding 25 April. French rugby fixtures occasionally shift due to European competition schedules or administrative changes. Clarification of the exact settlement criteria—whether YES refers to a Montauban victory, a specific margin, or another outcome—remains critical, as the current zero probability may reflect settlement term confusion rather than pure match expectation. Recent Top 14 standings and form sheets will be published closer to the fixture date.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.lnr.fr/top-14. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Top 14: Montauban vs Racing 92" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$8K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.lnr.fr/top-14. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: