Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Super Rugby Pacific match between Highlanders and Waratahs, scheduled for May 9 2026.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Highlanders | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Waratahs | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Highlanders will face the Waratahs in a Super Rugby Pacific fixture on 9 May 2026, with settlement contingent on the match occurring as scheduled. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating traders are pricing near-certainty that the event will resolve YES. This extreme probability typically emerges when counterparty liquidity is thin or when the market perceives negligible execution risk within the settlement window closing 16 May 2026.
Historical precedent suggests Super Rugby Pacific matches rarely fail to occur once scheduled, barring extraordinary circumstances such as force majeure events or competition-wide suspensions. The 2020–2021 pandemic disruptions remain the primary reference case for systemic cancellation risk; since the competition's restart, fixture completion rates have normalised to above 99%. The Highlanders and Waratahs are both established franchises with stable operational capacity, reducing idiosyncratic default risk relative to newer or financially constrained teams.
Traders monitoring this market should track official Super Rugby Pacific fixture confirmations and any squad availability announcements from either union in the weeks preceding 9 May. Weather forecasts for the match venue and any injury bulletins affecting key players could theoretically influence settlement interpretation, though they would not typically trigger cancellation. Fixture postponements due to international window conflicts or administrative changes remain possible but historically infrequent. The settlement window's seven-day buffer post-match provides adequate time for official result confirmation.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://super.rugby/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Super Rugby Pacific: Highlanders vs Waratahs" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://super.rugby/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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