Trade: Gil Vicente FC vs. FC Arouca - Exact Score
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Primeira Liga game between Gil Vicente FC and FC Arouca, scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 3:15 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Gil Vicente FC vs. FC Arouca match originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 3:15 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $47K
- Total Volume
- $50
- 24h Volume
- $50
- Open Interest
- $50
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
Gil Vicente FC will face FC Arouca in a Primeira Liga fixture on 11 May 2026, with the match kicking off at 3:15 PM ET. This exact-score market is currently pricing a 5% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, reflecting the difficulty of predicting a precise final scoreline in Portuguese top-flight football. The settlement window closes at 19:15 UTC on match day, allowing roughly six hours post-kickoff for resolution.
Exact-score markets in domestic league football typically see probabilities cluster around the most common outcomes—1-0, 1-1, 2-1, and 2-0 results—which collectively account for roughly 50-60% of all matches. Gil Vicente and Arouca are mid-table sides with comparable recent form; both averaged between 1.3 and 1.6 goals per match across the 2024-25 season. Historical data suggests that any single scoreline in a fixture between teams of similar quality rarely exceeds 8-12% implied probability, making the current 5% pricing consistent with less-favoured outcomes or deeper scorelines.
Traders should monitor team news in the fortnight preceding the match, particularly injury updates to key attacking or defensive personnel that could shift expected goal output. Fixture congestion late in the season may affect squad rotation decisions. Recent form divergence—should one side enter the match on a winning streak whilst the other struggles—could materially alter scoring patterns. Polymarket's order book will likely see activity in the final 48 hours as late-arriving information crystallises trader positioning.
Wikipedia Context
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Gil VicenteGil Vicente, called the Trobadour, was a Portuguese playwright and poet who acted in and directed his own plays. Considered the chief dramatist of Portugal he is sometimes called the "Portuguese Plautus," often referred to as the "Father of Portuguese drama" and as one of Western literature's greatest playwrights. Also noted as a lyric poet, Vicente worked i
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Gil Vicente F.C.Gil Vicente Futebol Clube, commonly known as Gil Vicente, founded in 1924, is a Portuguese professional football club that plays in Barcelos. It plays their home matches at the Estádio Cidade de Barcelos. It competes in the Primeira Liga, the top division of football in the country, and it is named after Portuguese playwright Gil Vicente.
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Gil Vicente TheatreThe Gil Vicente Theatre, currently known as Associação de Socorros Mútuos Artística Vimaranense (Mutual Aid and Artistic Association of Guimarães, or ASMAV), is a historic building at the Gil Vicente Street, in Guimarães, Portugal.
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Vicente Gil (actor)
Gil Vicente Martínez is a Spanish actor, best known for his role in the short film Timecode (2016) and the Amazon Prime Video series El pueblo (2019).
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ligaportugal.pt/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Gil Vicente FC vs. FC Arouca - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$50 in lifetime turnover and $47K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $50 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ligaportugal.pt/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Gil Vicente FC vs. FC Arouca - Exact Score"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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