Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 15 at 12:00AM ET: If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs". If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Odd/Even Score | 63% YES | 37% NO |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | 62% YES | 38% NO |
| Team to Score First | 50% YES | 50% NO |
The San Antonio Spurs face the Minnesota Timberwolves in an NBA matchup scheduled for 15 May at 12:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 63% implied probability favouring the Spurs, suggesting traders assess them as the more likely victor. This probability is formed through active trading on the platform's order book, where the spread between bid and ask prices establishes the marginal probability at any given moment.
Historical matchups between these franchises provide context for evaluating the current odds. The Spurs' recent playoff performances and regular-season records against Western Conference opponents inform baseline expectations, whilst the Timberwolves' roster composition and recent form shape counter-arguments. Comparable games from the current season reveal how similar matchups have resolved, offering traders a reference point for assessing whether 63% adequately prices the Spurs' advantages or disadvantages.
Key catalysts affecting this market include injury reports released in the days before the fixture, as roster availability significantly impacts win probability. Trades or roster moves announced between now and tip-off could shift the probability materially. Weather conditions, travel schedules, and back-to-back game fatigue may also influence performance. Traders should monitor official NBA announcements regarding postponements or cancellations, as the settlement window remains open until 15 May at 04:00 UTC, allowing for resolution adjustments if the game is delayed beyond the scheduled time.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.nba.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Spurs vs. Timberwolves" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$780 in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $639 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.nba.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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