Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between San Jose Earthquakes and Vancouver Whitecaps FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| San Jose Earthquakes | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| Draw (San Jose Earthquakes vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC) | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 47% YES | 54% NO |
San Jose Earthquakes will host Vancouver Whitecaps FC in Major League Soccer on Saturday, 9 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 30% implied probability for a Whitecaps victory, with settlement occurring at 02:30 UTC on 10 May following the match conclusion. This pricing suggests the market favours the home side, though the spread indicates meaningful uncertainty about the outcome.
Historically, MLS regular-season matches between these Pacific Conference rivals have shown volatility in result distribution. Vancouver's away record and San Jose's home advantage typically compress probabilities toward the 35–40% range for visiting teams in this fixture. The 30% mark currently priced suggests traders are weighting either recent form disparities, injury status, or seasonal momentum more heavily than long-run averages. Context from prior seasons indicates that late-season scheduling and cumulative fatigue can shift these dynamics substantially, particularly in May when fixture congestion peaks.
Key variables for traders monitoring the order book include team news releases on squad availability in the week preceding the match, any fixture rescheduling announcements from MLS, and Vancouver's performance in their immediately preceding matches. Weather conditions at San Jose's venue and any managerial changes announced before kickoff could trigger repricing. The settlement window closes shortly after full-time, leaving minimal opportunity for post-match arbitrage, so position management ahead of Saturday remains the primary trading consideration.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "San Jose Earthquakes vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$100K in lifetime turnover and $949K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $97K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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