Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins, scheduled for May 8 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| NRFI | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Spread -2.5 | — | |
| O/U 10.5 | — | |
| O/U 13.5 | — | |
| O/U 12.5 | — | |
| O/U 11.5 | — | |
| O/U 9.5 | — | |
The Washington Nationals face the Miami Marlins in an MLB regular season fixture scheduled for 8 May at 7:10 PM ET. The market currently reflects a 100% implied probability for a Nationals victory on Polymarket's order book, indicating either extreme confidence in Washington or minimal liquidity at current pricing. Settlement occurs by 15 May 2026, with resolution tied to official MLB final statistics. Postponements keep the market open until completion; cancellations or ties resolve 50-50.
Historical matchups between these franchises provide context for assessing the current probability. The Nationals have generally held a competitive edge over the Marlins in recent seasons, though Miami has shown capacity for upset performances. The 100% reading suggests either a significant disparity in team strength at this juncture or that traders have not yet committed meaningful capital to challenge the initial pricing. Early-season form, injury status, and recent performance trends typically drive such lopsided probabilities in baseball markets.
Key catalysts include roster announcements, starting pitcher confirmation, and weather conditions affecting game playability. Traders should monitor injury reports through to game time, particularly for position players and the pitching rotation. Recent team performance streaks, home-field advantage at Miami's LoanDepot Park, and any last-minute lineup changes could shift the probability if significant capital enters the order book. The settlement window's five-day buffer allows for postponement adjustments, though May weather in Miami rarely forces delays.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$367K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $365K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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