Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox, scheduled for May 8 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| NRFI | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 7.5 | — | |
| Spread -1.5 | — | |
| O/U 6.5 | — | |
| O/U 5.5 | — | |
| Spread -2.5 | — | |
| O/U 4.5 | — | |
The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Boston Red Sox on 8 May at 7:10 PM ET in an American League East matchup. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 45% implied probability for a Rays victory, suggesting market participants favour the Red Sox as slight favourites at roughly 55%. This probability has formed through active trading on the platform's order book, where the spread between bid and ask prices establishes the consensus expectation.
Historically, the Rays have maintained competitive regular-season records against Boston despite the Red Sox's greater financial resources. Over recent seasons, these divisional matchups have typically reflected relatively balanced win probabilities, though the Red Sox's larger payroll has generally translated to marginal advantages in head-to-head records. The current 45% probability for Tampa Bay sits within the range observed for competitive divisional games where neither team holds overwhelming dominance, though it suggests modest Red Sox favouritism.
Traders should monitor roster availability in the days preceding the fixture, particularly starting pitcher assignments and any late injury announcements. Recent form matters considerably—both teams' performance in their preceding games and bullpen usage patterns will influence late-market adjustments. Weather conditions at Tropicana Field and any last-minute lineup changes announced on game day could shift the order book materially. The settlement window extends to 15 May, allowing for postponements or rescheduling should weather intervene.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$460K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $456K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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