Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Athletics and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for June 3 at 8:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game. This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| NRFI | 51% YES | 49% NO |
The Athletics travel to Chicago to face the Cubs on 3 June at 8:05 PM ET in a regular-season MLB matchup. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 47% implied probability for an Athletics victory, suggesting the Cubs are slight favourites at roughly 53%. This probability is being formed through real-time trading activity on the platform's order book, where traders are pricing in available information about both teams' current form and matchup dynamics.
Historical context matters here: the Cubs have generally maintained stronger win rates than Oakland in recent seasons, though the Athletics' 2024 roster composition and any mid-season roster moves will influence baseline expectations. When comparing similar inter-divisional matchups with comparable team strength differentials, markets typically price the stronger franchise at 52–55% probability, which aligns with current pricing. The Cubs' home-field advantage at Wrigley Field typically adds 2–3 percentage points to their win probability in neutral analytical models.
Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements, which typically arrive 24–48 hours before game time and can shift probabilities materially depending on recent performance metrics and injury status. Weather conditions at Wrigley—particularly wind direction and temperature—historically affect run-scoring environments and may trigger order book activity. Any late roster moves, such as injury updates to key position players or bullpen availability, will be reflected in trading activity leading up to the 3 June fixture. The settlement window closes on 11 June, allowing for potential postponements to be resolved.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$457 in lifetime turnover and $23K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $452 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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