Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for May 8 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| NRFI | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 7.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 9.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 6.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The New York Mets travel to Arizona on 8 May for an evening matchup against the Diamondbacks, with first pitch scheduled for 9:40 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for a Mets victory, indicating that traders are pricing this as a near-certain outcome. This extreme probability typically emerges when one side of a binary sports market has accumulated substantial backing, though such lopsided pricing often reflects incomplete information or illiquidity rather than genuine certainty in baseball's inherently variable outcomes.
Historical precedent suggests that single-game MLB markets rarely sustain 100% implied probabilities once both teams' rosters and pitching assignments are confirmed. Even heavily favoured teams typically trade between 65–80% depending on matchup fundamentals. The Mets' current implied probability warrants scrutiny against baseline factors: recent form, head-to-head records, home-field advantage (Arizona hosts), and crucially, the announced starting pitchers. Diamondbacks home games at Chase Field have historically favoured the host, and May weather in Phoenix presents different conditions than the Mets' home environment.
Key catalysts for repricing include confirmation of starting pitchers, any late roster moves or injury announcements, and weather updates closer to game time. Traders should monitor official MLB communications and team injury reports through 7 May. The settlement window extends to 16 May to accommodate potential postponements, though the market's current extreme pricing suggests limited liquidity or conviction from contrarian traders willing to back Arizona at present odds.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$586K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $556K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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