Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins, scheduled for May 16 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Milwaukee Brewers" if the Milwaukee Brewers win the game. This market will resolve to "Minnesota Twins" if the Minnesota Twins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| NRFI | 47% YES | 53% NO |
The Milwaukee Brewers face the Minnesota Twins on 16 May at 7:10 PM ET in a regular-season MLB matchup. The current order book on Polymarket prices the Brewers' victory at 47 per cent implied probability, reflecting modest market confidence in a Milwaukee win. This pricing emerges from real-time trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools, where traders continuously adjust positions based on available information and their assessments of game outcomes.
Historical performance between these franchises provides context for evaluating the current probability. The Brewers and Twins have competed in the same division (AL Central) until recent realignment, with their head-to-head records showing competitive balance over recent seasons. Both teams' 2024 regular-season trajectories—including win-loss records, run differential, and performance against comparable opponents—inform baseline expectations. The 47 per cent reading suggests the market views this as a relatively even contest, though slightly favouring Minnesota based on current roster composition and recent form.
Traders should monitor roster availability in the days preceding the fixture, particularly starting pitcher assignments and any late-season injuries affecting either team's lineup. Weather conditions at the venue may influence play style and scoring patterns. Recent performance trends, including each team's record in their last ten games and bullpen effectiveness, typically drive intraday probability shifts as game time approaches. The settlement window extends to 23 May 2026, allowing time for any postponements or make-up games to be resolved before final settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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