Trade: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, scheduled for June 6 at 7:35PM ET: This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $20K
- Total Volume
- —
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- —
Market outcomes
| Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| NRFI | 52% YES | 49% NO |
Market context
The Boston Red Sox face the New York Yankees on 6 June at 7:35PM ET in a regular-season MLB matchup. The Polymarket order book currently reflects a 50–50 split probability, indicating traders view this as a genuine toss-up. Settlement occurs on 13 June, allowing for postponement resolution should weather or other factors delay the fixture.
The AL East rivalry carries historical weight in probability assessment. Since 2020, head-to-head records between these clubs have typically reflected competitive balance, though seasonal performance variance matters considerably. The Yankees entered 2024 as division favourites, whilst the Red Sox have shown inconsistent form. Current market pricing at 50–50 suggests traders are either discounting recent performance differentials or treating this as a single-game event where roster depth and bullpen availability matter more than season-long trends.
Key variables for traders include starting pitcher assignments and injury status, particularly any late roster changes announced in the days before first pitch. Recent form—wins and losses in the preceding week—often shifts implied probabilities noticeably. Weather conditions at Fenway Park or Yankee Stadium could influence game dynamics, especially if precipitation affects ball carry or visibility. Monitoring official MLB injury reports and team announcements through 5 June will clarify whether either side faces unexpected absences that might shift the order book materially from its current equilibrium.
Wikipedia Context
-
List of Boston Red Sox seasonsThe Boston Red Sox are a professional baseball team based in Boston, Massachusetts, founded in 1901 as one of Major League Baseball (MLB)'s American League (AL) eight charter franchises under the name the "Boston Americans". First playing home games at Huntington Avenue Grounds, the team became known as the "Red Sox" in 1908, before establishing Fenway Park—
-
List of Boston Red Sox team recordsThe Boston Red Sox are a Major League Baseball (MLB) team based in Boston, Massachusetts. They have competed in the American League (AL) since it was founded in 1901, and in the AL East division since it was formed in 1969. Note that before 1908, the team was known as the Boston Americans. The list below documents players and teams that hold particular club
-
List of Boston Red Sox award winners
This is a list of award winners and single-season leaderboards for the Boston Red Sox professional baseball team.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: