Trade: Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals, scheduled for May 15 at 6:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
- —
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- —
Market outcomes
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| NRFI | 47% YES | 53% NO |
Market context
The Baltimore Orioles face the Washington Nationals in an MLB regular-season matchup scheduled for 15 May at 6:45PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 66% implied probability favouring an Orioles victory, suggesting the market perceives a meaningful advantage for Baltimore in this divisional contest. Settlement occurs on 22 May at 22:45 UTC, allowing sufficient time for game completion or rescheduling should weather or other factors intervene.
Historical context for this matchup reveals the Orioles have held a competitive edge over the Nationals in recent seasons. Baltimore's 2023 campaign saw them finish with 101 wins, whilst Washington struggled to contention. The 66% probability aligns with typical market pricing for a team with stronger recent performance and roster depth, though divisional games carry inherent volatility. The Nationals remain capable of upset performances, particularly if starting pitching matchups favour Washington.
Key variables traders should monitor include confirmed starting pitcher assignments, which typically emerge 24–48 hours before first pitch, and any late roster moves or injury updates. Weather forecasts for Baltimore on game day could influence play conditions. Recent form matters considerably—the Orioles' win-loss record in their preceding ten games and the Nationals' offensive output against comparable pitching profiles will shape refined probability estimates as game time approaches. Polymarket's order book will likely tighten as additional information surfaces and casual traders enter positions.
Wikipedia Context
-
Baltimore OriolesThe Baltimore Orioles are an American professional baseball team based in Baltimore. The Orioles compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the American League (AL) East Division. As one of the American League's eight charter teams in 1901, the franchise spent its first year as a major league club in Milwaukee as the Milwaukee Brewers before
-
Baltimore Orioles minor league players
Below are select minor league players and the rosters of the minor league affiliates of the Baltimore Orioles:
-
Baltimore Orioles (1882–1899)The Baltimore Orioles were a 19th-century professional baseball team that competed from 1882 to 1899, first in the American Association and later in the National League. This early Orioles franchise, which featured six players and a manager who were later inducted to the National Baseball Hall of Fame, finished in first place for three consecutive seasons (1
-
Baltimore Orioles (1901–1902)The Baltimore Orioles were a Major League Baseball team that played in Baltimore from 1901 to 1902. A charter member of the American League (AL), the team only lasted two seasons before folding after the 1902 season. The team was replaced the following season with the New York Highlanders, known since 1913 as the New York Yankees.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: