Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between Ninjas in Pyjamas and Invictus Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for May 9 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Ninjas in Pyjamas" if Ninjas in Pyjamas win the match against Invictus Gaming. This market will resolve to "Invictus Gaming" if Invictus Gaming win the match against Ninjas in Pyjamas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% YES | 1% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Ninjas in Pyjamas, a Swedish esports organisation, will face Invictus Gaming, a Chinese League of Legends powerhouse, in a best-of-three match within the LPL Group Ascend competition on 9 May 2026 at 05:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 10% implied probability for NiP victory, suggesting the market views this as a heavily favoured matchup for Invictus Gaming. This pricing emerges from the aggregate of limit orders and market-maker spreads active on the platform today.
Invictus Gaming has historically dominated international and regional competition, winning the 2018 League of Legends World Championship and maintaining consistent top-tier performance in the LPL. NiP, whilst competitive in European and international circuits, has not demonstrated the same calibre of results against top-tier Chinese teams. The 90% implied probability for Invictus reflects this historical performance gap and the structural advantage of competing within the LPL's domestic ecosystem.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute substitutions announced before the 9 May fixture, as player availability directly impacts match outcomes. Recent LPL scheduling announcements and any official statements regarding the Group Ascend format should be tracked through Riot Games' official channels. Additionally, the settlement window's 7-day buffer means delays beyond 16 May would trigger a 50-50 resolution, introducing tail-risk considerations for positions held into that period.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/lplenglish. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$622K in lifetime turnover and $504K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $605K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/lplenglish. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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