Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming J2 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between Roasso Kumamoto and FC Ryūkyū.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Roasso Kumamoto | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (Roasso Kumamoto vs. FC Ryūkyū) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| FC Ryūkyū | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Roasso Kumamoto will host FC Ryūkyū in a J2 League fixture on 10 May 2026, with settlement determined by the match outcome. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability, indicating traders are pricing an extremely low likelihood of a particular outcome at present. This extreme probability typically emerges when one side of a binary market has received minimal backing relative to the opposing position, or when the market structure itself creates asymmetric pricing during early trading phases.
J2 League matches between mid-table sides historically show volatile pre-match probability shifts, particularly as fixture dates approach and team news crystallises. Roasso Kumamoto and FC Ryūkyū occupy different competitive tiers within the second division, with historical head-to-head records and recent form trajectories influencing rational pricing. Early-season probability extremes in lower-league football often correct substantially once injury reports, squad rotations, and weather conditions become concrete rather than speculative.
Traders should monitor official J2 League announcements regarding squad availability, managerial changes, or fixture rescheduling through May 2026. Recent domestic cup competitions and mid-week fixtures will affect rotation patterns and player fatigue entering this match. Weather forecasts for Kumamoto in early May and any late tactical adjustments from either club represent material catalysts. The settlement window closes at 05:00 UTC on 10 May, allowing only match-day morning adjustments once final team sheets are confirmed.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.jleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Roasso Kumamoto vs. FC Ryūkyū" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.jleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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