Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Friday, June 19, 2026 between Scotland and Morocco.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Scotland | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| Draw (Scotland vs. Morocco) | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Morocco | 42% YES | 58% NO |
Scotland will face Morocco in a group-stage fixture at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 19 June. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Scotland victory at 27 per cent implied probability, reflecting Morocco as the marginal favourite in what shapes as a competitive encounter between two nations with contrasting recent tournament form.
Scotland's World Cup record provides context for the 27 per cent pricing. The nation qualified for the 2022 tournament in Qatar but exited at the group stage without a win, conceding nine goals across three matches. Morocco, by contrast, reached the semi-finals of the 2022 World Cup and has demonstrated stronger recent tournament pedigree, though both sides will enter 2026 with squad changes and new coaching structures. Historical matchups between the nations are sparse, limiting direct precedent, but Morocco's trajectory in continental and World Cup competition has been steeper than Scotland's over the past four years.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury developments through the qualifying campaign, which concludes in late 2025. Scotland's ability to secure attacking depth and defensive stability will be critical; Morocco's squad continuity and whether key players from their 2022 run remain available will shape their competitive standing. Fixture scheduling within the group stage—including which nations Scotland and Morocco face alongside each other—may also influence perceived difficulty. Recent managerial appointments for both federations, expected to be confirmed by early 2025, will provide clearer signals on tactical approach and player selection philosophy heading into the tournament.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Scotland vs. Morocco" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$144 in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $65 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: