Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Saturday, June 13, 2026 between Qatar and Switzerland.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw (Qatar vs. Switzerland) | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| Switzerland | 77% YES | 24% NO |
| Qatar | 9% YES | 91% NO |
Qatar and Switzerland will meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage fixture on 13 June 2026. The match is scheduled for 19:00 UTC, with settlement determined by the final result: a Qatar victory triggers a YES resolution. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 16% probability of a Qatar win, reflecting market participants' assessment of the underlying matchup dynamics and team strength differential.
Qatar's qualification as the 2022 World Cup host granted them automatic entry to the 2026 tournament, though their performance in that competition—elimination in the group stage without a win—provides recent context for evaluating their competitive standing. Switzerland, conversely, reached the quarter-finals in 2022 and has maintained consistent qualification records across recent tournaments. Historical head-to-head records between the sides are limited, but Switzerland's FIFA ranking and tournament pedigree typically position them as favourites in such encounters. The 16% probability assigned to Qatar reflects the substantial gap in recent form and international standing between the two nations.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates as the tournament approaches, particularly regarding key Swiss players and Qatar's tactical preparations under their coaching setup. Fixture scheduling within the group stage may also influence team rotation decisions and competitive intensity. Pre-tournament friendlies in May 2026 will provide updated information on both sides' form and readiness, potentially shifting market pricing closer to the settlement date.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Qatar vs. Switzerland" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$8K in lifetime turnover and $32K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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