Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Friday, June 26, 2026 between New Zealand and Belgium.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Belgium | 74% YES | 26% NO |
| New Zealand | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| Draw (New Zealand vs. Belgium) | 19% YES | 82% NO |
New Zealand and Belgium will meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage fixture on 26 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a New Zealand victory at 61 per cent implied probability, reflecting modest backing for the underdog despite Belgium's superior ranking and tournament pedigree. This pricing sits notably higher than pre-tournament models typically assign to New Zealand in such matchups, suggesting either material shifts in squad composition or genuine uncertainty about Belgium's form heading into the tournament.
Belgium reached the semi-finals in 2018 and the quarter-finals in 2022, establishing themselves as a consistent top-eight side. New Zealand qualified for the 2022 World Cup but exited the group stage without a win. Historical head-to-head records between the nations are sparse; their last competitive meeting was a 2010 friendly. The 61 per cent probability implies either significant injury concerns for Belgium's ageing squad or substantial confidence in New Zealand's preparation and tactical setup—both plausible given Belgium's reliance on players in their early thirties.
Traders should monitor squad announcements through to late June, particularly regarding Belgium's availability of key midfielders and forwards. New Zealand's recent form in qualifying and any late injury disclosures will also shape the order book. Fixture congestion in the group stage and weather conditions in North America may favour either side depending on their acclimatisation. The settlement window closes 27 June at 03:00 UTC, allowing only post-match settlement once the fixture concludes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "New Zealand vs. Belgium" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$220 in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $114 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 27 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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