Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming National League game, scheduled for Sunday, May 3, 2026 between Carlisle United FC and Boreham Wood FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Carlisle United FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (Carlisle United FC vs. Boreham Wood FC) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Boreham Wood FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Carlisle United and Boreham Wood will meet in a National League fixture on Sunday, 3 May 2026. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful price; traders should examine the depth of bids and asks to determine which. Settlement occurs at 11:30 UTC on the event date, giving roughly 18 months for information to accumulate.
Both clubs operate in England's fifth tier, where fixture outcomes are historically volatile and dependent on squad stability, managerial continuity, and mid-season form. Carlisle United has established itself as a competitive force in recent National League seasons, whilst Boreham Wood has experienced variable performance. Historical matchups between lower-league sides show that pre-season assessments often shift materially once the campaign begins; injuries, transfers, and managerial changes reshape competitive balance significantly between announcement and fixture date.
Traders should monitor squad announcements, managerial appointments, and injury reports from both clubs as the 2025–26 season progresses. Fixture congestion, cup competition exits, and form trajectories in the months immediately preceding May 2026 will be material catalysts. The current zero probability may reflect genuine conviction about one outcome, but it may equally signal that the market has not yet attracted sufficient participation to price the event. Early liquidity providers often face wide spreads in prediction markets with distant settlement dates.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.thenationalleague.org.uk/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Carlisle United FC vs. Boreham Wood FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.thenationalleague.org.uk/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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