Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming League Two game, scheduled for Friday, May 15, 2026 between Salford City FC and Grimsby Town FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Salford City FC | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Draw (Salford City FC vs. Grimsby Town FC) | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| Grimsby Town FC | 30% YES | 70% NO |
Salford City and Grimsby Town will meet in a League Two fixture on Friday, 15 May 2026, with settlement tied to the final whistle result. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Salford victory at 43 per cent implied probability, reflecting modest backing for the away side despite their status as the higher-ranked club in recent seasons.
Historical context matters here: Salford have occupied mid-to-upper League Two positions in recent campaigns, whilst Grimsby have cycled between League Two and National League, making them structurally the weaker outfit. Head-to-head records and seasonal form typically favour Salford in such matchups, yet the 43 per cent probability suggests the market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty—likely driven by home advantage at Blundell Park and the volatility inherent in lower-league football where squad depth and injury status shift outcomes sharply.
Traders should monitor team news in the fortnight before kick-off, particularly injury confirmations and any late managerial changes that could affect tactical setup or squad morale. Fixture congestion in the final weeks of the season may also influence available personnel; both clubs' positions in the final table standings will be clearer as May approaches. Weather conditions on the day and referee assignments, whilst harder to predict, have documented effects on lower-league match outcomes. The settlement window closes immediately post-match, leaving no room for post-game disputes to influence pricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.efl.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Salford City FC vs. Grimsby Town FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.efl.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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